I am Distinguished Research Professor of Mathematical Biology, UCSC, Adjunct Professor in the Theoretical Ecology Group at the University of Bergen, Norway (Visit the TEG) and Affiliate Research Professor at the University of Washington, Tacoma. In my first job out of graduate school, I worked for the Operations Evaluation Group (OEG) of the Center for Naval Analyses doing operations research for the Navy. I moved to UC Davis in 1980 with the intention of doing OEG-style work, but with applications to fisheries and agriculture. I am broadly interested in using mathematical methods to solve problems that arise in biology (especially ecology, evolution, and behavior) and work in what Donald Stokes called Pasteur's Quadrant of use-inspired basic research, where a search for fundamental understanding is motivated by an important applied problem. Stokes's book Pasteur's Quadrant. Basic Science and Technological Innovation (Brookings Institution Press 1997) is well worth reading.

Current Research Projects

Population Consequences of Disturbance : There are two threads of work here. First, I am winding down work with Liz McHuron, Leslie New, Enrico Pirotta, andLisa Schwartz generating models of how anthropgenic disturbance of foraging habitats will affect marine mammals. We have thus far developed a general framework, and applied it to California sea lions, blue whales, and the western population of gray whales. Publications from thus far:

2016 Schwarz, L.K., McHuron, E., Mangel, M., Wells, R.S., and D.P. Costa Stochastic dynamic programming: An approach for modelling the population consequences of disturbance due to lost foraging opportunities. Fourth International Conference on the Effects of Noise on Aquatic Life Dublin, Ireland 10-16 July 2016. DOI: 10.1121/2.0000276

2017 McHuron, E.A., Costa, D.P., Schwarz, L., and M. Mangel. State-dependent behavioural theory for assessing the fitness consequences of anthropogenic disturbance on capital and income breeders. Methods in Ecology and Evolution doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12701

2017 McHuron, E.A., Mangel, M., Schwarz, L.K., and D.P. Costa.Energy and prey requirements of California sea lions under variable environmental conditions. Marine Ecology Progress Series 567:235-247

2018 Pirotta, E., Mangel, M., Costa, D.P., Mate, B., Goldbogen, J.A., Palacios, D.M., Huckstadt, L.A., McHuron, E.A., Schwarz, L., and L. New. A dynamic state model of migratory behavior and physiology to assess the consequences of environmental variation and anthropogenic disturbance on marine vertebrates. American Naturalist 191: DOI: 10.1086/695135

2018 McHuron, E.A., Schwarz, L.K., Costa, D.P., and M. Mangel. A state-dependent model for assessing the population consequences of disturbance on income-breeding mammals. Ecological Modeling 385:133-144

2019 Pirotta, E., Mangel, M., Costa, D.P., Goldbogen, J., Harwood, J., Hin, V., Irvine, L.M, Mate, B.R., McHuron, E.A., Palacios, D.M., Schwarz, L., and L. New. Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population Okios 00:1-18, doi: 10.1111/oik.06146

I have also worked with colleagues at the University of Alberta on climate change and polar bears:

2019 Reimer, J.R., Mangel, M., Derocher, A.E., and M. A. Lewis. Modeling optimal responses and fitness consequences in a changing Arctic. Global Change Biology DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14681

The second thread of work , done in collaboration with Andre de Roos (University of Amsterdam) and Benjamin Martin (Fisheries Ecology Division, NOAA Fisheries, Santa Cruz) is to find ways to unify Dynamic Energy Budget models and Stochastic Dynamic Programming models in order to predict the consquences of disturbance on marine mammals. This work started in June 2019, so no publications yet.

Biological Models for Cybersecurity : Since July 2018, I have been working with colleagues at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory with the intention of using models from population biology to inform various aspects of cyber-security. At this point, there are three sub-projects: i) using classical disease models (SIR, SIRS) to illuminate attack and defense of cyber networks, with application to the electric grid; ii) using metapopulation models to understand cyber system volatility; and iii) using causal loop diagrams to understand the relationship between investment and preparedness in disaster health. No publications yet.

The Role of Mesopelagic Fishes in Northeast Atlantic Marine Ecosystems . I am part of a project at the University of Bergen with Christian Jorgensen, Tom Langbehn, and Gabriella Ljungstrom on mesopelagic species in the Norwegian Sea. We have three objectives: i) to investigate the role of predation from mesopelagic fishes in driving latitudinal life history variation among calanoid copepods; ii) to identify the drivers of the unique migratory life history of Norwegian spring-spawning herring, with particular focus on a vacant niche directly and indirectly shaped by mesopelagic fishes; and iii) to predict changes in the Norwegian Sea ecosystem as a response to climate warming, with emphasis on the changed distribution of mesopelagic fishes. Here's a kind of precursor paper to this project:

2018 Ljungstrom, G., Francis, T.B., Mangel, M., and C. Jorgensen. Parent-offspring conflict over reproductive timing: ecological dynamics far away and at other times may explain spawning variability in Pacific herring. ICES Journal of Marine Science doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsy106

Recently Completed Projects

Ecotherms in changing environments Supported by an OPUS (Opportunities for Understanding through Synthesis) grant from the Division of Environmental Biology at NSF (2015-18), I wrote a synthesis synthesis of my work over the last 30+ years. My goal is to show how state dependent behavioral and life history theory, as implemented by stochastic dynamic programming intercollates with other methods (e.g. population dynamics or quantitative genetics models) used for studying organismal response to changing environments. After receiving critical but very helpful comments from reviewers at Princeton University Press, I am back to the writing table with substantial revisons planned. In addition to this NSF work, I was a member of the research project ConEvolHer in which we ask if contemporary evolution can explain the enigmas in recent dynamics of Norwegian spring-spawning herring.

Informing population models with evolutionary theory to infer species' conservation status (NSF-NERC grant (2016-2019) with Holly Kindsvater (Rutgers), Jason Matthiopoulos (Glasgow), and Nick Dulvy (Simon Fraser)). We used a combination of evolutionary theory and Bayesian population modeling to make inferences about the status of data-poor stocks (we started with scombrids, sharks, rays, and groupers). My role was to use state dependent life history theory to produce scientifically based priors for use in the Bayesian analysis; I did this by solving the inverse problem -- observing life history traits and inferring the environment from them. Another overall goal of the project was to unify size spectra theory and Stochastic Dynamic Programming models for life histories. The first few papers:

2017 Mangel, M. The inverse life-history problem, size-dependent mortality and two extensions of results of Holt and Beverton. Fish and Fisheries. DOI: 10.1111/faf.12247

2018 Kindsvater, H.K., Dulvy, N., Horswill, C., Juan-Jorda, M-J, Mangel, M., and J. Matthiopoulos. Overcoming the data crisis in biodiversity conservation. Trends in Ecology and Evolution.

2019 Horswill, C., Kinsvater, H.K., Juan-Jorda M.J., Dulvy, N.K., Mangel, M. and J. Matthiopoulos. Global reconstruction of life-history strategies: A case study using tunas. Journal of Applied Ecology 56:855-865 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13327

Science and law Between July 2010 and July 2013, I served as the Independent Scientific Expert of Australia for this case in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), concerning whether the Japanese special permit whaling program is for purposes of scientific research or not (the Court decided it was not) At the ICJ website for this case you can find Australia's original filing (under Application),the written proceedings, which include the Memorial of Australia, the Counter-Memorial of Japan, the Intervention by New Zealand, and the Expert statements and associated correspondence (under Written Proceedings), transcripts of the hearings (under Oral Proceedings), and Orders and Press Releases by the Court. The hearings are available as a recorded webcast (VOD) on the United Nations Web TV TV website. My testimony at the Court can be found about an hour into this link. I continue to have an interest in thinking about ways to improve the interaction of science and law. I am working on a paper concerning science for lawyers, particularly to see if the approach that I took in the whaling case could apply in other situations, and have an interest in human rights law, as it applies to fisheries, which is something FishWise staff have worked on, including two white papers. The first is about traceability generally and the second about human rights and fishery sustainability. At FishWise, we were ahead of the Guardian expose of summer 2014 on this topic. Just a few papers on this topic, so here they are:

2014 de la Mare, W., Gales, N., and M. Mangel. Applying scientific principles in international law on whaling. Science 345:1125-1126

2016 Mangel, M. Whales, science, and scientific whaling in the International Court of Justice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

2017 Lewis, S., Alifano, A., Boyle, M., and M. Mangel. Human rights and the sustainability of fisheries. pg 379-396 in BConservation for the Anthropocene Ocean (P. Levin and M. Poe, editors, Elsevier Press).

My Approach to Mathematical Biology I use models (differential equations, stochastic dynamic programming and Bayesian statistical methods), experiments (either here in Santa Cruz or in collaboration with colleagues elsewhere) and field observations. I apply these ideas to a variety of systems, currently including southern ocean krill, steelhead trout, Pacific rockfish, planaria). Although I worked for many years on insect parasitoids and tephritid fruit flies, I am not doing much with them just now except writing up a big field project that Bernie Roitberg and I did in the 1990s.

News of the Ohana to Nov 2015 [Follow me on twitter @MarcMangel1 for current news]

Left Align

These updates concern current and former undergraduate (US) and graduate (GS)students, my peronsal assistant (PA), post-docs (PD), research assistants but not my student (RA), and technicians (T) in my group :

Asaf Sadeh (GS 2008-11) has accepted a position in the Department of Natural Resources at the VolcaniInstitute, Nov 2015

Megan Atcheson (UG 2002-03) was promoted to Senior Fisheries Assessment Manager at the Marine Stewardship Council office in London. She is the line manager of a team of three Fisheries Assessment Managers, Oct 2015

Will Satterthwaite (PD 2006-10) received the Stevan Phelps Award from the Genetics Section of the American Fisheries Society for his paper on genetic stock identification of chinook salmon (Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 143:117-133). This was especially gratifying since Jon Brodziak (GS 1986-1990), Richard Gomulkiewicz (RA 1986-1989) and I began that work in the mid-1980s, using allozymes, Aug 2015

Angie Shelton (GS 1996-2002) left her full time research position as Indiana University forest to retrain to teach high school science at Bloomington High School North in Bloomington, IN. Angie teahes AP Environmental Science (one of only two instructors in the county),regular Environmental Science, and introduction to Biology. As I often told my undergraduate students: if one really wants to change the world, become a great high school science or mathematics teacher, July 2015

Holly Kindsvater (UG 2001-03, PD 2013-15) started a position as Visiting Assistant Professor, Rutgers University, July 2015

Carl Boettiger (PD 2012-15) started his position as Assistant Professor in the Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management at UC Berkeley, July 2015

Santiago Salinas (PD 2012-14) started his position as Assistant Professor in the Department of Biology at Kalamazoo College, July 2015.

Will Satterthwaite (PD 2006-10) took over as Chair of the Scientific and Statistical Committee of the Pacific Fisheries Management Council, June 2015

Katriona Shea (PD 2000-2001) was named the Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences at Pennsylvania State University, March 2015

Spiro Stefanou (GS 1980-83) moved to the University of Florida from Penn State, and is now Chair of the Department of Food and Resource Economics, January 2015

EJ Dick (GS 2004-2009) received the Gold Medal from the Secretary of Commerce (the highest honor bestowed by the Secretary of Commerce recognizing distinguished performance characterized by extraordinary, notable, or prestigious contributions) for leading the team that has developed assessment methods for data-poor stocks that triples the number of high-quality stock assessments and increases allowable catch limits for fishermen.

Stephanie Carlson (PD 2007-08) was promoted to Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management at UCB. October 2014

Mike Beakes (T 2006-10) completed his PhD in Biological Sciences at Simon Fraser University and started a NRC Post-doc at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center with Tim Beechie. September 2014

Melissa Monk (PD 2012-14) accepted a position as Fishery Research Applied Mathematician at the Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center. August 2014.

Suzanne Alonzo (PD 1998-2004) has left Yale University to return to UCSC as Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. August 2014.

Fred Adler (PD 1991-93) was elected President of the Society for Mathematical Biology.

Justin Yeakel (GS 2009-2012) accepted a position as Assistant Professor in the School of Natural Sciences at UCM. Justin will move to UCM in Nov, 2015; he is going to spend the next year as Omidyar Fellow at the Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute. July 2014.

Shea Gardner (GS 1992-97) received the 2014 Gold Award from Global Security for developing the first transportable automated system for microbial forensic analysis based on DNA sequencing. July 2014.

Santiago Salinas (PD 2012-14) accepted a position as Visiting Assistant Professor in the Department of Biology at University of the Pacific. July 2014.

Barney Luttbeg (GS 1991-97)has received tenure and promotion to Associate Professor at Oklahoma A&M (formerly Oklahoma State) University. June 2014.

Asaf Sadeh (GS 2007-11) accepted a Lady Davis Fellowship for a post-doctoral position at the Faculty of Agriculture, Hebrew Univesity, Rehovot. June 2014.

Erick Greene (PD 1988-90) received the Tom Boone Town and Gown Award from the University of Montana. This recognizes the faculty who most demonstrates outstanding community service and making research accessible to the general public. Erick also received the Excellence in Teaching Across the Curriculum Award. This award is for the teacher who demonstrates outstanding teaching and mentoring at all levels (lower-level introductory classes, upper-level classes, and graduate education). June 2014

Juan Lopez (GS 2011-) received a NSF GROW fellowship to visit Andre de Roos in Amsterdam for the summer. NSF describes the program like this: In an era of globalization of research excellence, an international research experience is rapidly becoming an integral part of an outstanding graduate education. Graduate Research Opportunities Worldwide (GROW) is a collaboration between NSF, international partners and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to provide NSF Graduate Research Fellows with expanded opportunities to enhance professional development through research collaborations at top-caliber science and engineering research sites overseas. May 2014

Will Satterthwaite (PD 2006-10) took over as Vice Chair of the Scientific and Statistical Committee of the Pacific Fisheries Management Council, April 2014

Leah Johnson (GS 2002-06) started a position as Assistant Professor in the Department of Integrative Biology at the University ofSouth Florida, August 2013

Holly Kindsvater (US and PA 2001-04)received a NSF Postdoctoral Fellowship in Mathematics and Biology. She will be co-supervised by John Reynolds (Simon Fraser University) and me, and based at SFU

Taal Levi (GS 2007-2012) accepted a position as Assistant Professor at Oregon State University (June 2013).

Richard Gomukiewicz (GS 1986-90) shared the 2012 Presidential Award from the American Society of Naturalists for his paper with Michaeal Barfiedl and Robert Holt for their paper on evolution in an age-structured population (American Naturalist 177:397-409)

Justin Yeakel (GS 2009-2012) has started a post-doc with Jonathan Moore at Simon Fraser University working on isotopes and food webs, July 2012

Taal Levi (GS 2007-2012) received a NSF Postdoctoral Fellowship and is working with Rick Ostfield on lyme disease, June 2012

Roxi Pourzand (US 2010-12; PA 2011-12) received the Weiss Family Scholarship in June 2012. The Weiss Family Scholarship is awarded to students who are affiliated with College Nine or College Ten and working directly with faculty within the research centers. Roxi did a brilliant undergraduate thesis working with faculty in the Water Resources Center. In July, she started as a data analyst with the SF-based company DataRaker,whose goal is to analyze large amounts of utility data (gas, water, and electric) from smart metering technologies and things such as helping the utility price their water, targeting customers in the utility for energy efficiency/conservation programs, and help the utility protect revenue by finding water/gas/electric theft.

Simone Vincenzi (Visiting PD 2009, 2010; PD 2011-13) has received an outgoing EU Marie Curie Fellowship. Simone will spend calendar years 2013 and 2014 in Santa Cruz and then 2015 in Milan. We will work together on life history of marbled trout in Slovenia, May 2012

Who-Seung Lee (GS 2008-2010, co-supervised with Neil Metcalfe and Pat Monaghan) has received the Government of Quebec Merit Postdoctoral Fellowship for International Scholars, to continue his work with Pedro Peres-Noto, April 2012

Taal Levi (current GS, co-supervised with Chris Wilmers, ENVS) received a NSF Postdoctoral Fellowship, April 2012

Will Satterthwaite (PD 2006-11) has taken a permanent job with the Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, April 2012

Juan Lopez (US summer 2010 and current AMS PhD student) received a NSF Graduate Research Fellowship, April 2012

Dan Merl (GS 2003-06) has joined FaceBook as a leader of their statistical analysis division, April 2012

Ole Shelton (PD 2009-2012) has taken a permanent position in Phil Levin's group at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center, April 2012

Colin Meyer (US, summer 2009) has received a Churchill Scholarship to the University of Cambridge where he will undertake a one year Master's course in Applied Math and Theoretical Physics (the famous Part III of the Math Tripos), March 2012

Gia Kobara (PA 2009-2011) is now working in the HR department at Facebook, March 2012

Beth Howard (US 2000-2001) is now the reserve manager for Younger Lagoon (located at the Long Marine Lab property, and part of the UC reserve system)

Sigrunn Eliassen (GS 2003-06) is back for a year long visit (2011-12) from the University of Bergen, where she is a researcher

Holly Kindsvater (US and PA 2001-04) successfully defended her PhD in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at Yale University, September 2011

Chris Simon (PA, 2005-06) has joined the company (1010data, Sept 2011

Asaf Sadeh (GS 2008-11) received a BARD post-doctoral fellowship to work with Jay Rosenheim at Davis, Aug 2011

Katriona Shea (PD, 2000-2011) was promoted to Full Professor at Penn State. Go Lions!, Aug 2011

Amos Bouskila (GS, 1988-92) was promoted to Associate Professor at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev and has received excellence in teaching awards in 2009, 2010, and 2011

George Heimpel (GS, 1990-95) is a Resident Fellow at the Institute of the Environment, University of Minnesota

Michael Maxwell(GS, 1989-95) received National University President's President's Professoriate Award

Suzanne Alonzo (PD, 1998-2004) received the Yale Postdoctoral Mentorship Prize for 2011 and a NSF Early CAREER Award in 2010.

Read about Suzanne's mentoring award

Valerie Brown (GS, current) received the prize for the best student poster ast the World Conference on Natural Resource Modeling, 2011

Shea Gardner (GS, 1992-95) received the 2010 Technology Transfer Award in Federal Lab Consortium’s Far West Region for developing the LawrenceLivermore Microbial Detection Array (LLMDA) and the 2010 Gold Award from LLNL Global Security Directorate for Microarray Development

Holly Kindsvater (US and PA 2001-04) received a dissertation year fellowship from the American Association of University Women, April 2011

Chris Simon (PA, 2005-06) successfully defended his Phd in Applied Mathematics and Statistics, April 2011

Mariah Boyle, Operations Manager at FishWise, became a member of CSTAR, March 2011

Katie (nee Siegfried) Andrews (GS 2002-06) has moved to the Beaufort, NC lab of the Southeast Fisheries Science Center, Feb 2011

Juan Lopez (US, Summer 2010) received an Outstanding Achievement Award from the UC LEADS program for work he did on modeling steelhead growth

Steve Munch (PD 2002-05) returned to Santa Cruz as a staff member at the Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries,Santa Cruz Lab, Sept 2010. Yeah!

Will Satterthwaite (PD 2006-2010) is now Assistant Research Applied Mathematician at UCSC, working full time on salmon at the Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries,Santa Cruz Lab, July 2011